The Middle East conflict and your investments

Published Thursday 5 March 2026

Geopolitical conflict – a phrase we’re all too familiar with these days - has ramped up over the last week with conflict breaking out in the Middle East. The United States and Israel have carried out military action on Iran, with Iran retaliating with attacks on Israel and U.S. forces, and across the Middle East.

The situation is changing day by day, with no clear answer to the question “how long will this last?”

Through AMP’s partnership with BlackRock®, we draw on insights from the BlackRock Investment Institute. Their current position on this conflict is that it’s a volatility shock, rather than a fundamental shift in the global investment outlook. The outcome is currently unknown, and depends on three key variables:

• The duration of hostilities
• The extent of physical disruption to energy infrastructure or transport
• The eventual political end state. 

So, what do we know?

We know that markets don’t like uncertainty – and we’ve seen that in the sharp rise in oil prices and fall in share markets, reflecting concerns about energy supply and broader risks related to an ongoing conflict.

More ups and downs to come for KiwiSaver and Managed Funds

We also know that things are going to be bumpy for a while – we don’t know how long this conflict will last, or what a resolution looks like. U.S. President Trump has suggested the conflict could go on to up to four weeks, but the truth is, we just don’t know.

So, what should I do?

Firstly, don’t panic. The main thing to focus on is your investment timeframe. If you’re invested in KiwiSaver, chances are you’re saving for something years, rather than days or weeks away.

When markets fall and your account balance drops, it can be tempting to make changes to your investment strategy, especially when there are so many negative headlines and news stories.

But beware - moving to a lower risk fund during market turmoil may lock in losses and could mean missing out if markets bounce back. While it isn’t always wrong change your strategy, the right decision depends on your personal circumstances and comfort with risk, and getting expert advice can help.

AMP portfolios are built to weather the storm

It’s important to remember that while events like this are unsettling for investors, AMP’s diversified investment approach is built for the long run, designed to navigate periods of uncertainty without reacting to short-term headlines.

AMP’s portfolios are spread across lots of different types of investments, in different countries and industries.

When energy prices jump, some investments do better and others do worse. Having a mix helps balance this out, so your portfolio can handle market ups and downs without relying on any one outcome. 

Bottom line for AMP investors

As with all conflict, the human impact is deeply concerning, and our thoughts are with those affected in the region.

From an investment point of view, this is a short-term period of volatility, not a reason to make big changes to your investments at this stage.

At AMP we use diversification to help portfolios cope with uncertainty and stay focused on long‑term goals.

Rest assured we’re watching the situation closely, especially any ongoing disruption to energy supplies. For now, the best approach for investors is to stay diversified, avoid making rushed decisions, and keep a long‑term focus. If you’re thinking about making any changes, talk to an Adviser.

This material has been created with the co-operation of BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited (BIMAL) ABN 13 006 165 975, AFSL 230 523 on [5/3/2026]. Comments made by BIMAL employees here represent BIMAL’s views only. This material provides general advice only and does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation, needs or circumstances. Before making any investment decision, you should obtain financial advice tailored to you having regard to your individual objectives, financial situation, needs and circumstances. Refer to BIMAL’s Financial Services Guide at blackrock.com/au for more information. This material is not a financial product recommendation or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial product in any jurisdiction.