Recent events in Venezuela: what happened?

Our customers have probably heard the news - the U.S. carried out a targeted strike in Venezuela and captured its president, Nicolás Maduro. The U.S. describes this as a leadership change rather than overthrowing an entire regime. For now, Maduro’s closest aides remain in place and there isn’t a clear roadmap for what comes next.
 

Venezuela: the global context 
 

It’s helpful to put these happenings into a bigger picture. At AMP, we lean on insights from the BlackRock Investment Institute, as part of our partnership with BlackRock®, which frames the global economy through Mega Forces. Venezuela is a live example of these forces at work – in particular a fragmenting world (geopolitical competition) and the energy transformation. But it is not the only example: whispers about the U.S. eyeing Greenland, the idea of buying or annexing it that popped up in the news a while back. And then there’s the continuing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, a reminder that another part of the world remains unstable and unpredictable. All of these situations underline how geopolitical friction is everywhere, and that lots of different scenarios could play out even when we’re not paying attention.
 

Market impact: should investors worry? 

When we translate what the BlackRock Investment Institute’s research means for markets, the direct impact looks limited - Venezuela makes up only about one percent of global oil production despite its huge reserves, so oil prices aren’t expected to swing wildly over this. Gas and mining output probably won’t change overnight either. But if you put that alongside other geopolitical dramas – the whispers about Greenland, the grinding conflict in Ukraine, tensions elsewhere – it reinforces why planning for several possibilities makes sense. Secondary issues like people moving across borders or talk of new elections are worth watching, but by themselves they don’t usually move global markets the way big trends (like artificial intelligence) do.
 

Financial outlook: what should change? 
 

As our customers think about their own financial outlook, they may find themselves asking: has my basic view of the world changed? From our perspective the answer remains the same: the underlying drivers of the global economy are intact, surprises happen, and the range of possible futures you thought about yesterday hasn’t suddenly shifted just because of one headline. History shows that markets don’t end up demanding extra pay simply because geopolitical risks rise; and if there’s a brief wobble in prices, some people view that as a chance to strengthen their position. Interestingly, global markets have continued to rise during the latest news headlines.
 

AMP’s approach: staying the course 

At AMP, our approach reflects these lessons. There’s no need to throw away a carefully built strategy because one headline catches your eye. We stay prudently risk-aware, continuing to support growth themes like U.S. companies pushing boundaries in artificial intelligence, allocating to emerging-markets in an appropriate way, and keeping our customers’ portfolio diversified across regions and asset types. Our partnership with BlackRock means we can draw on global wisdom when making these choices.  This partnership has helped deliver leading returns for AMP KiwiSaver and other investments over the past 3-5 years.
 

The big picture: diversification and long-term planning 
 

At the end of the day, our goal is to help our customers stay calm and ready for whatever scenario the future holds. Big events – in Venezuela, in Eastern Europe, or even a distant island like Greenland – tend to fit patterns that the BlackRock Investment Institute has studied. And because Venezuela’s slice of the world oil market is tiny, there’s no reason to worry that a shock there will derail investments. The world already has more supply of oil than it needs at present, and the gradual move away from fossil fuels is helping to reduce the impacts of oil shocks that have impacted markets in previous decades. The small share of any single country in the global economy reminds us: diversification and long-term planning matters more than the day’s headlines. AMP’s role is to smooth out the bumps along the way and keep our customers’ long-term journey on track.
 

Stay informed of AMP’s market views by reading our quarterly market commentary. January 2026 edition out soon.